1207_(Translation Practice) American monetary policy: Check yourself_ Part 2

  •  
  • 18
  • 0
  • 0
  • Traditional Chinese 
Dec 7, 2017 23:54 translation
This is a translation practice (from English to Chinese)
Please let me know your valuable opinions and suggestions about the translation.
Thanks a lot.

Source:
http://www.kekenet.com/Article/201712/533613.shtml
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
It is possible that more inflation is coming.
發生通貨膨脹還是有可能的。

An economy that is stimulated will eventually overheat.
刺激經濟後,遲早會過度發展。

The central bank may believe that low unemployment is about to cause inflation.
中央銀行相信失業率低會導致通貨膨脹。

But the truth is that nobody is sure how far unemployment can fall before prices and wages soar.
但是沒人能確定物價,工資劇升前這麼失業率可以低到哪種程度。

Not many years ago some rate-setters put this “natural” rate of unemployment at over 6%; the median rate-setter's estimate is now 4.7%.
就在幾年前 利率協調者認為維持利息超過6%非常合理自然;現在則估算是4.7%。

The only way to find the labour market's limits is to feel them out.
找出勞動市場的種種規則,是需要靠感覺的。

Falling inflation and middling wage growth both suggest that these limits are some way off, for two possible reasons.
通膨率下降,和不高不低的工資顯示這些限制有些不切實際,其可能原因有二:

First, higher wage growth could yet tempt more of the jobless to seek work (those who are not actively job-hunting do not count as unemployed).
第一點,工資往上爬升可以刺激尋找工作(非積極求職者不算在失業人口)。

The proportion of 25- to 54-year-olds in employment is lower than before the recession, by an amount representing almost 2.4m people.
25到54歲員工比例比經濟不景氣前來的更低,數量將近240萬人。

By this measure, which fell in May, joblessness is worse in America than in France, where the overall unemployment rate stands at 9.5%.
根據姑算,五月美國失業率問題比法國嚴重,總體失業率是9.5%。

Second, even the moderate pickup in wage growth to date might encourage firms to invest more, lifting productivity out of the doldrums and dampening inflationary pressure.
第二點,迄今工資上升成長還算合理,可刺激企業投資,增進生產力,回復景氣抑止通膨壓力。

Jobs growth in America has already slowed from a monthly average of 187,000 in 2016 to 121,000 in the past three months.
美國就業成長從2016年的月均187000人一直到到最近三個月的121000人,

That is enough to reduce slack in the economy, but only just.
足以減緩經濟蕭條,但是也僅能如此而已。

Slowing it still further is needless so long as inflation remains quiescent.
只要通脹率保持不變,進一步放緩就顯得沒必要。

It makes still less sense when you consider the asymmetry of risks before the Fed.
先不管美聯儲,想想這不對稱的風險,還是有說不通的地方。

If tighter money tips the economy into recession, the central bank has only a little bit of room to cut rates before it hits zero.
貨幣緊縮使經濟蕭條,中央銀行只有在利率零點前沒有多少空間可以再削減利息了。

But if inflation rises, it can raise them as much as it likes.
如果通膨發生,成長的空間將會非常大。

This asymmetry of risks extends to the Fed's credibility.
分散風險波及了美聯儲的信用

Inflation has been below 2% for 59 of the 63 months since the target was announced in January 2012.
2012年1月至今,通膨率已經59個月維持在2%以下了。

Continuing to undershoot the goal would cast more doubt on the central bank's commitment to it than modest overshoots would.
相較於適度的超標,持續未達標會造成對於中央銀行的不信任。

For too long, hawks have made excuses for the persistence of low inflation.
激進份子給低通膨率編造理由好一段時間了。

The latest is to blame new contracts offering unlimited amounts of mobile data, as if cheaper telecommunications somehow should not count.
最新的理由是抨擊無限量的移動數據的新方案,其他通訊方式似乎被藐視了。

The Fed should keep its promise to base its decisions on the data, and leave interest rates exactly where they are.
美聯儲堅持自己答應的根據數據行事,讓利率維持現狀。